On November 17, 2025, U.S. federal agencies responsible for monitoring weather and climate issued a coordinated update that underscores both immediate and long-term environmental challenges. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) released new data and forecasts suggesting that the upcoming winter could bring noticeable shifts in regional climate patterns, even as underlying long-term indicators continue to reflect persistent climate change.
According to the CPC, the U.S. is poised to transition out of the current La Niña phase into a more neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state as winter progresses. This shift in Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation patterns could alter expected precipitation and temperature distributions across large swaths of the country. While La Niña generally favors drier conditions in the southern U.S. and wetter weather in the north, an ENSO-neutral phase often produces more unpredictable results. The CPC estimates a more than 60 percent chance that ENSO-neutral conditions will dominate between January and March 2026.
This projected change could have a significant impact on how winter weather unfolds. In recent weeks, the CPC noted emerging signs of colder-than-average conditions developing across the central and northern U.S., with an increased probability of snowfall in parts of the Midwest and interior West. Meanwhile, the eastern half of the country may experience warmer-than-average temperatures early in the season, followed by potential cold snaps as the pattern continues to evolve. Such forecasts are based on advanced climate models that take into account sea surface temperatures, jet stream behavior, and atmospheric dynamics.
Simultaneously, the NCEI has been documenting the broader climate context, which points to a nation already undergoing notable shifts. Monthly data reports compiled throughout 2025 show that the U.S. continues to experience above-average temperatures in many regions, as well as shifts in the timing and intensity of precipitation events. In the western states, snowpack levels have been below average, while in the Northeast, warmer-than-usual autumn temperatures have delayed seasonal transitions. These conditions are consistent with global climate trends that indicate rising greenhouse gas concentrations, increased surface temperatures, and mounting stress on natural ecosystems.
The NCEI also maintains a comprehensive record of billion-dollar weather and climate disasters, which have become more frequent in recent years. These include severe storms, floods, droughts, and wildfires—each event contributing to the growing economic and human toll of a warming planet. As these costly disasters become more common, climate scientists and policymakers are increasingly focused on resilience planning and climate adaptation strategies to prepare communities for both sudden shocks and slow-moving transformations.
The simultaneous release of short-term seasonal forecasts and long-term climate monitoring data highlights the dual challenge confronting the nation. On one hand, the immediate winter outlook demands short-term readiness, such as preparation for snow and ice in the central states or flood mitigation in wetter regions. On the other hand, the continued trends in temperature rise, altered precipitation patterns, and ecosystem disruption signal the need for long-term structural changes.
This duality is critical for decision-makers. Communities cannot afford to treat each season’s forecast as an isolated event. Instead, there is growing recognition that individual weather patterns are now unfolding against a backdrop of systemic climate change. Infrastructure built for 20th-century climate conditions may no longer be sufficient. Investments in stormwater management, grid resilience, transportation networks, and emergency preparedness systems are increasingly necessary to address both present and future threats.
In addition to physical infrastructure, ecological and social systems must also adapt. Shifts in snowmelt timing affect water supplies in the West. Changes in freeze-thaw cycles influence agricultural productivity and pest patterns. Warmer winters reduce energy use for heating but increase stress on species adapted to colder environments. As a result, agencies are urging increased coordination between federal, state, and local governments, along with private sector and community organizations, to craft responses that address both the weather we experience today and the climate we will face tomorrow.
While public attention often gravitates toward extreme events—such as hurricanes, heatwaves, or record-breaking snowstorms—the broader message from these agencies is clear: the background climate is changing in ways that affect every season, every region, and every facet of life. Winter 2025–2026 may bring typical challenges, but it also serves as another data point in a longer story of transformation. U.S. climate agencies are calling for vigilance, planning, and sustained investment in a future that demands both immediate adaptability and long-term foresight.
