A poll conducted by Data for Progress and reported by Politico indicates that Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has a significant lead over Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in a hypothetical matchup for the 2028 Senate primary in New York.

Poll Results Overview

• Ocasio-Cortez Support: 55% of likely Democratic primary voters expressed support for Ocasio-Cortez.
• Schumer Support: 36% indicated they would vote for Schumer.
• Undecided Voters: 9% of respondents remained undecided.

Demographics and Subgroup Analysis

While Ocasio-Cortez garnered widespread support across all demographic groups, the poll revealed that moderates preferred Schumer, with 50% backing him compared to 35% for Ocasio-Cortez. Among voters aged 45 and older, Ocasio-Cortez also received 49% support, reflecting varying levels of support across age groups.

Context of the Polling Data

This polling data arrives amid political unrest following Schumer’s endorsement of a Republican-backed spending bill earlier this year, which stirred controversy within his party. Many Democrats have begun to speculate about the possibility of Ocasio-Cortez challenging Schumer in the upcoming primary.

Insights from Political Observers

Zephyr Teachout, a Fordham University School of Law professor, noted the prevailing sentiment among voters who want leaders to take a more active stance against the actions of former President Donald Trump, with 84% supporting this view.

Market researcher Adam Carlson emphasized that, despite the poll’s indication of Schumer trailing Ocasio-Cortez, many subgroups still hold a favorable opinion of him, gathering over 50% positivity ratings among voters other than those categorized as “very liberal” or under 44 years of age.

A Potential Shift in Leadership

The poll, which was conducted from March 26 to March 31 and included 767 likely Democratic primary voters in New York, suggests a desire among constituents for a “changing of the guard” in leadership, as expressed by observers in the political landscape.

As Ocasio-Cortez refrains from publicly discussing her political ambitions for the Senate, the dynamics of this polling could have lasting impacts on New York’s political future.