Explaining the confusion in the Canadian government | Vox

The Canadian government is in trouble.

The government currently governing the country, led by longtime Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, announced on Monday that Trudeau’s right-hand man (and once staunch ally), Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, The latest blow came when he surprised Canadians with the following proposal: She resigned in spectacular fashion and issued a letter harshly criticizing her former boss.

Freeland specifically cited disagreements over how to manage Canada’s economy in the face of looming U.S. tariffs as a breaking point in his relationship with Trudeau. President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on Canada shortly after his election. This threat is taxing the Trudeau government, but it is only part of a larger problem. Prime Minister Trudeau and his party have been steadily losing trust with the public and parliament for years. The deal that kept Trudeau’s party in power has collapsed this year, and pressure is starting to mount for him to resign, especially given that his party is expected to struggle in next year’s national election.

All of this means that even before Freeland resigned, the Trudeau government was inching closer to the brink of collapse. And now, with Freeland’s resignation, the Canadian government is in an even more precarious position as it prepares to face the incoming hostile Trump administration.

Prime Minister Trudeau is unpopular within his party and in Canada.

Before the Freeland incident, Mr. Trudeau had two problems. The people were dissatisfied with him and his party’s policies, and many within his party were dissatisfied with his management.

Prime Minister Trudeau has been Canada’s leader for nearly 10 years and leader of the Liberal Party for nearly 12 years. Being in power in the Canadian context is a fairly long period of time. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Trudeau’s popularity has plummeted. His approval rating was initially 63%, but it has fallen to 28% in recent opinion polls.

“In some ways, it’s not surprising that Canadians are tired of their government, because when you’re in government for too long, when you get to a certain point in your term, you start looking around and blaming the government. The guy who’s been in charge for 10 years is wrong,” Elizabeth McCallion, a political science professor at the University of Toronto, told Vox. “Many Canadians are reaching the point where they no longer want Prime Minister Trudeau.”

Canada has some big problems at the moment. The country is struggling with a cost of living and housing crisis, and debate is heating up over the wisdom of the Liberal Party’s immigration and environmental strategy ahead of the 2025 election. The Liberals’ biggest rivals, the Conservatives, have been quick to link Trudeau’s policy choices to these issues.

The Conservatives are expected to make a big jump in next year’s general election, but rival parties’ political attacks on the Liberals and their record have already proven powerful, with Prime Minister Trudeau’s party struggling to win the recent special election. He lost a seat that was supposed to be safe. These losses have added to Trudeau’s crisis of confidence within his party.

“He’s had sort of a series of setbacks in recent months, including a loss in a by-election. It’s a pretty significant setback,” said Andrew McDougall, a political science professor at the University of Toronto. Professor Andrew McDougall told Box. “He lost St. Paul’s (constituency) in Toronto, which was the core of the Liberal support, and that alone led to speculation that he might have to go. (The Liberals) could do the same in Montreal. , the proposition was that that is precisely the party’s strongest base – if you can’t win there, you can’t really win anywhere.

Mr. Freeland’s resignation only renewed and intensified calls for Mr. Trudeau to resign, some of which came from members of his own party. There is little way to remove him from the party’s leadership unless he resigns, and no one has come forward as a viable candidate. However, the House of Commons could vote to trigger an early election through a vote of no confidence in late January when it reconvenes after the holidays.

Only if that vote is successful would elections be held early, but it is unclear whether that will happen. Prime Minister Trudeau survived a previous no-confidence vote thanks to support from his former coalition partners, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) and the pro-Quebec party Bloc Québécois. But the NDP abandoned a partnership agreement with the Liberals earlier this year, and the Bloc Quebecois leader said he would work to end Trudeau’s term after the Liberals failed to meet some of his demands. said. But it may not be in the NDP’s interest to dissolve the government now, and if they choose to save Trudeau, the Liberals will remain in power for now.

“Both the Conservatives and the Bloc Quebecois want to hold an election, but the New Democrats are less keen because the polls are against them. They have supported the Liberal Party for years. “We have done so and may continue to do so even after the next vote of confidence,” Daniel Behrand, director of the McGill Canada Research Institute, told Box.

Everything went dark because of the tariffs.

Trump has thrown a new element into all this domestic turmoil.

In late November, President Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada “until we stop drugs, especially fentanyl, and all illegal aliens from invading our country.”

The reality of fentanyl trafficking and migrant flows is far more complex than President Trump suggests, and there is little Canada or Mexico can do to quickly change either. If he follows through on his threats, the tariffs would be extremely damaging to both countries. In Canada’s case, the United States is by far its largest and most important trading partner. These tariffs would further exacerbate the affordability crisis that has hampered Trudeau in recent days.

Freeland was expected to lead Canada’s response to these tariffs, but Freeland’s resignation comes after Freeland and Prime Minister Trudeau disagree on how to approach the issues they raise. It suggested that.

“The next U.S. administration is pursuing aggressive economic nationalist policies, including threats of 25% tariffs,” Freeland wrote. “We need to take that threat very seriously.”

Freeland said in the letter that Prime Minister Trudeau is using costly economic “gimmicks” to maintain aid, such as suspending certain taxes and providing stimulus checks to households earning below certain thresholds. He accused the government of using the government to “plunge Canada into a precarious financial position at a time when it faces significant challenges.” ”

Mr. McCallion and Mr. McDougall said it is unusual for an MP or government minister to speak out against party leadership, and Mr. Freeland’s resignation shows how fragile the unity of Mr. Trudeau’s party really is. He explained.

Mr. Trudeau has not made any public statements since Mr. Freeland’s resignation. It’s unclear what his next move will be or how he and new Finance Minister Dominique LeBlanc plan to deal with potential tariffs and intraparty discord. Trudeau and Freeland actually negotiated trade deals with the previous Trump administration, and their combined experience could have been beneficial to Trudeau.

But Prime Minister Trudeau may not get the chance to completely restart these negotiations. Even if it survives a possible no-confidence vote early next year, a general election is scheduled for October, with the Conservatives still expected to win.