In 2024, gun violence will be down. Here’s how:

If you follow the news about gun violence in America, you know there’s a lot to be gloomy about.

Guns were already a major public health concern when the pandemic hit and homicide rates skyrocketed. The spike in homicides in 2020 and 2021 is best understood as a spike in gun violence, with firearm-related deaths accounting for the majority of the increase, according to the study. Not all communities were equally affected. In 2020, 61 percent of gun homicide victims were Black, with the largest increase among boys and men ages 10 to 44. According to the Gun Violence Archive, the number of mass shootings (mass shootings in which four or more people are shot, injured, or killed, excluding the shooter) reached 689 the following year, an increase of more than 50 percent over the number of mass shootings. . 2018 mass shooting incident.

And the Supreme Court has ruled that virtually all Americans can carry weapons in public. Following a frightening rise in gun violence, experts have warned that it will almost certainly get worse.

But that’s not actually happening. Some of the worst-case scenarios based on recent trends in gun violence have yet to materialize. Let’s be clear: We still have extremely high levels of gun violence in the United States. The country owns more guns per capita than any other country on earth, and has a messy web of laws that makes regulating them extremely difficult. For these reasons, the country remains highly vulnerable to a potential increase in gun-related deaths in the future.

But we’re so used to the bad news about gun violence and the fact that Republicans refuse to pass better gun laws that we tend to look away from the problem, feeling hopeless. . It is therefore important to recognize that in some important ways this year was better than last, and that 2024 was an important step in the right direction.

Gun deaths will decrease in the US by 2024

Crime data analyst Jeff Asher said this year is likely the fastest-ever decline in homicides, which is especially impressive considering last year also saw the fastest-ever decline in homicides. These numbers will almost certainly be revised slightly, but the overall picture is unlikely to change. The majority of homicides in the United States involve firearms, so it’s safe to assume that this decline is due to fewer gun deaths. And that’s reflected in significant double-digit declines in homicides in cities that have long suffered from gun violence epidemics, such as Baltimore, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C.

I cannot overstate how meaningful that is. As Asher points out, “The rapid decline in homicides resulted in more than 5,000 fewer homicide victims this year than in 2020-2022.”

In other words, the pandemic-era homicide surge appears to be over. what happened? Experts are careful not to attribute the increase or decrease in homicides to a single cause. But the reopening of workplaces and schools after pandemic disruptions and closures, and new federally funded efforts in many U.S. cities to reduce gun violence, will almost certainly help. It became. Whatever the reason, thousands of lives will be saved as a result.

Outbreaks of political violence that were not

One of the key concerns that gun and political violence researchers had heading into 2024 was whether violence would erupt after the presidential election. Those concerns were not unfounded. A recent study reveals that a small but alarming number of Americans believe a more violent era in American life is coming. Fewer of these respondents say that violence is justified for political reasons and that they are willing to participate in political violence.

And in July, a gunman fired at President-elect Donald Trump during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, nearly hitting him in the head. It is said that it grazed his ear). , another man tried again, but this time the Secret Service was able to respond before shots were fired.

“The set of circumstances that are most likely to cause political violence in this country in the coming months are that electoral momentum is tilting toward the Democratic Party, and high-profile cases of political violence have already occurred. , this is a close election,” said political violence researcher Galen J. Wintemute told Vox after the first assassination attempt.

According to opinion polls, the election was close until the end. Trump has repeatedly attacked the legitimacy of the electoral process. And the memory of January 6, 2021, when the then-President incited a mob to stage a violent armed insurrection at the U.S. Capitol to protest his election loss, is still fresh in everyone’s memory. .

But that didn’t happen. Maybe because the election wasn’t a long battle, and maybe because Trump won. Whatever the reason, the United States has bounced back from what appeared to be a dangerous moment. But that doesn’t mean the country can’t get back there soon. The recent shooting of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson and the lionization of his alleged killer Luigi Mangione suggest that Americans are more tolerant of political violence than previously realized. revealed a possibility. Additionally, studies of mass shooters have found that when a shooter receives public attention, copycats tend to emerge.

But in 2024, the worst fears about election violence did not materialize.

And it’s not just political violence. In December, a student in Wisconsin killed a classmate and a teacher, but overall mass shootings appear to have declined in 2024, from 656 in 2023 to 491 in 2024. No one knows exactly why, but it’s definitely a good thing.

Ghost gun scourge alleviated

The Thompson assassination in December was newsworthy for many reasons, one of which was that it appeared to be the first high-profile murder to use a ghost gun. In this case, the gun was 3D printed by the alleged shooter himself.

Ghost guns don’t have serial numbers, making it difficult for law enforcement to track where they came from. This makes it especially attractive for people who commit crimes but don’t want to get caught.

These guns have become a huge problem in recent years, with the number of such weapons recovered from crime scenes recording a staggering 1,083 percent increase between 2017 and 2021. It appears that many of these guns were not natively printed, like Mangione’s guns, but instead were printed instead. Sold online as an easy-to-assemble kit. Just one ghost gun manufacturer was responsible for 88% of the guns recovered at the time.

The government moved quickly to address this issue. In 2022, the Biden administration announced that Ghost gun kits and their receivers (or frames) would be subject to the same federal regulations as regular guns, meaning they would need a serial number. The rule has been challenged in court, but the Supreme Court is likely to uphold the law, which the government says is necessary to crack down on untraceable guns. Meanwhile, the gun manufacturers that made most of the guns turned up at crime scenes have been hit with lawsuits. Apparently it closed after that. The number of ghost guns recovered from crime scenes is now declining in some cities, according to an analysis by The Trace.

Of course, America still has too many guns and a regulatory system that resembles Swiss cheese. As long as that happens, the country will continue to grapple with rising gun deaths. However, developments this year show that the situation is not hopeless. Meaningful efforts to address gun violence and regulate firearms are effective and can save lives.