Is a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas near? It depends on who you ask. Since last week, multiple reports have indicated that there has been progress in negotiations between the two countries. However, other reports say there are still major gaps to overcome, and the precise nature of the conditions needed to reach a ceasefire and hostage agreement remains unclear.
But if such a person were to emerge, there would be one person who would take credit for it: Donald J. Trump.
On Monday, the president-elect held a press conference repeating comments he made on Truth Social threatening to “pay a hell of a price” if hostages held in Gaza were not released by his inauguration.
“We expect to be ready as soon as January 20th,” he said. “So, let’s see. As you know, I warned the hostages that if they didn’t return home by that date, hell would begin.”
A comprehensive hostage agreement and ceasefire remains elusive since the conflict erupted on October 7, 2023 (although the suspension of Israeli military offensives in November 2023 has led to The release of 50 hostages captured on October 7 was made possible in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners of war (and further aid to Gaza). But this week a senior Palestinian negotiator told the BBC that talks were in a “decisive and final stage” and that Israeli and US officials were traveling to take part in ceasefire talks in Doha, Qatar. I told them I was there.
Reports in the Wall Street Journal and NBC suggest that President Trump’s decision to participate in negotiations has pushed Hamas toward a deal. To understand how Trump’s impending inauguration will affect the future of talks and conflicts, The Explained spoke today with Stephen A. Cook, senior fellow for Middle East and African studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. I heard. Cook speaks with Today Explained co-host Noel King about the prospects for a ceasefire, President Trump’s record with Israel and how President Trump will approach the ongoing conflict with Israel in his second term. I talked about what to do. Below are excerpts of their conversation, edited for length and clarity. There’s more throughout the podcast, so listen to Today, Explained on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
How did President Trump approach Israel during his first term?
Well, Trump was a very pro-Israel president. Most presidents are actually very pro-Israel, so that’s saying something. He moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. This has been in the law since the late 1990s, but no president has taken action until now. He recognized Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights and turned a blind eye to the Israeli government’s worst excesses when it came to West Bank settlements.
Donald Trump is constantly beset by two conflicting narratives. One is that it is very difficult to get things done in the Middle East and often nothing gets accomplished. And the other one is, “Donald Trump just gets things done.” Was it difficult for Trump to accomplish what he did with Israel in his first term?
Well, no, because he basically did it according to presidential statute.
First of all, as I mentioned earlier, the move of the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem was a law passed by Congress in 1998. to the embassy in Jerusalem. Past presidents have stated, “For national security reasons, we do not want to prejudice the outcome of the final status negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians.” Therefore, even if we have the right to move the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, we intend to maintain the status quo. ”
“No, we’re moving the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem,” Trump said. He got nothing out of it from the Israelis, and it was probably a diplomatic mistake, but it was actually something he was doing to appease his evangelical base. This is because the evangelical base wants very strong US support for Israel and a maximalist Israeli policy. .
The world has undoubtedly become more complex since President Donald Trump’s last term. Russia, Ukraine, October 7th, all countries pulled in after October 7th. Do you think Trump and his foreign policy team realize that things could be more complicated this time?
You want to think that they do, that they are in touch with reality. Some of the statements President Trump has made regarding the region suggest that he thinks he will simply pick up where he left off when he reluctantly left office in January 2021. President Trump has talked about expanding the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia. As a result of the war in the Gaza Strip, the situation has become very complicated. Since the war began, the cost of normalization in Saudi Arabia has risen sharply. And now Saudi Arabia is demanding a real two-state solution, which Israel is not even prepared to respond to at this point.
The president also seems to think there will be a ceasefire and a hostage deal in the Gaza Strip, saying a hostage deal is necessary. I don’t think he realizes, at least in his remarks, how dramatically the region has changed since he left office.
Does his appointment reflect the major changes the region has undergone?
Congressman Mike Walz, the president’s nominee for national security adviser, is very pro-Israel. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), the nominee for secretary of state, also has very strong pro-Israel credentials. And, of course, his (appointed) permanent representative to the United Nations is New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, who has made a name for herself as a staunchly pro-Israel figure and who, in her famous post-UN General Assembly hearings in October, He made a name for himself by competing against the presidents of elite universities. The number of attacks is 7 times. And former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who was appointed US ambassador to Israel, is extremely pro-Israel. He does not recognize the Palestinians as a nation. And he does not consider Israeli settlements in the West Bank illegal.
This is a very pro-Israel regime. But of course, these people could end up being just the doers, the bit players, of what President Trump decides to do. And based on his first term, what he decides to do is what his intuition tells him. He considers himself a great negotiator, at least when it comes to the two-state solution and Iran’s nuclear program. I think it could cause tension with the Israeli government, which has a different view. .
What do we know about the truth about what Trump and Netanyahu think of each other?
Well, I read Jared Kushner’s memoir of his time in the White House so that no one else had to read it. It was truly terrifying reading. But one of the things I learned was that in the case of Netanyahu and Trump, there is a huge lack of trust between the two leaders.
President Trump has always feared that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was trying to betray him, and in a series of elections held by Israel during Trump’s presidency, Trump was actually a former Israeli Defense Forces staff member who led the opposition. He was rooting for the leader, Benny Gantz. party.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has always feared that President Trump’s sit-down negotiations with Iran over a new nuclear deal would be contrary to Israel’s interests. Add to that the fact that Prime Minister Netanyahu called President Joe Biden relatively quickly after his election was confirmed in November 2020, which infuriated President Trump.
So ever since Trump was re-elected, Netanyahu has been calling Trump and trying hard to appease him. However, I believe that lack of trust remains because President Trump has different views than Israelis on things like the two-state solution and Iran’s nuclear program.
We’re talking Tuesday afternoon, and we’re hearing that a ceasefire may be near. When do you think there will be a ceasefire?
I’ve been hearing columnists and others say that a ceasefire is imminent since at least February 2024. And what I do know is that Hamas and (former Hamas leader) Yahya Sinwar figures were killed by Israelis over several months. Previously, they were not interested in a ceasefire, but now they believe that Hamas is winning the conflict, even though there is a full-scale war and the Israelis have inflicted heavy losses on Hamas leaders in the civil war. was. In the Gaza Strip, Israel’s international legitimacy was severely undermined as a result of the conflict. And for Yahya Sinwar and others in Hamas, this was one of their goals, to undermine Israel’s legitimacy in the international order.
And, of course, on the Israeli side, the settlers did not want a ceasefire. They want, quote unquote, the “total destruction” of Hamas in order to pave the way for Israelis to resettle in the Gaza Strip. Therefore, there was no real incentive for a ceasefire.
However, things have changed a lot since then. Israel inflicted heavy losses on Hezbollah, Iran’s main proxy in Lebanon, forcing Hezbollah to enter into a deal with Israel, and there is now a ceasefire in Lebanon. This leaves Hamas isolated, and Hamas now has to make a decision. Will they make a deal with Israel to save their own remnants, or will they fight, believing that continued fighting will damage Israel internationally and put them at risk? Are you going to play the long game?
Some of the signs coming from Israeli ministers and others, Egyptians and others, are that Hamas has removed a major sticking point, and that is that it is demanding that all Israeli forces leave the Gaza Strip. It’s a thing. This could pave the way for a ceasefire and hostage exchange.
There are myriad reasons to want a ceasefire here, not the least of which is the humanitarian catastrophe that has been going on for over a year. But in a straightforward political calculation, if a cease-fire were to occur before President Donald Trump took office, who would emerge victorious? Trump? Biden? Will they fight over it?
Surely Trump would argue that. The Biden team will insist on that too. They’ve been working on this since the beginning. I would say the credit goes to the Israel Defense Forces. The Israel Defense Forces crushed Hezbollah, but no Western analyst believes they were able to do it without completely destroying Israel’s population centers. So when Hezbollah filed a lawsuit seeking a ceasefire, Hamas was truly isolated and left with no recourse.
Of course, Donald Trump would argue that. That’s why he posted on Truth Social and said in his first press conference that if the hostages are not returned by the time he takes office, he will pay a price in hell. He’s essentially setting it up to take credit for it.
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