The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its climate outlook for June 2025, predicting a warmer-than-average month for most of the contiguous United States, with notable regional variations in precipitation. These forecasts have significant implications for agriculture, water resource management, and wildfire preparedness nationwide.

Widespread Heat Anticipated

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the majority of the Lower 48 states are expected to experience above-normal temperatures in June. The highest probabilities for elevated temperatures, ranging from 50% to 60%, are forecasted for the northern and central Rockies and the Northeast. Conversely, parts of the southern and central Great Plains are projected to have equal chances of above, near, or below-normal temperatures, indicating a more uncertain temperature outlook for these regions.

In contrast, Alaska is expected to experience below-normal temperatures, particularly in the early part of the month, due to a persistent 500-hPa trough over the region. However, models suggest a potential weakening of this pattern later in June, which could lead to moderating temperatures.

Precipitation Patterns Vary by Region

The CPC’s precipitation outlook indicates a likelihood of above-average rainfall across much of the southern United States. This includes areas from the Southwest eastward across the Southern and Central Plains to most of the Southeast. Arizona, in particular, has a 60% to 70% chance of experiencing higher-than-average precipitation, which is notable given that June is typically one of the drier months in the region. Similarly, Oklahoma is forecasted to receive significant rainfall, with predictions of at least 3 inches, and potentially more than 5 inches, during the first 10 days of the month.

In contrast, the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Northern Plains are expected to see below-average precipitation. This forecast is based on both near-term and longer-range models that favor drier conditions in these areas.

Drought Conditions and Outlook

The CPC reports that drought conditions have improved across the South and East due to above-normal rainfall in May. As a result, total drought coverage in the U.S. decreased from approximately 37% to 31% during the month. However, drought intensified in parts of the Pacific Northwest and in a band from western Colorado across the Central Plains to the southern Great Lakes, where rainfall was below normal in May.

Looking ahead, the CPC’s Seasonal Drought Outlook predicts continued improvement in the East, while drought persistence and development are expected in the Pacific Northwest and central California. The south-central High Plains are forecasted to see drought removal, based on recent precipitation and the June outlook favoring above-normal rainfall.

Climate Patterns Influencing the Outlook

The current climate outlook is influenced by several factors, including soil moisture conditions and atmospheric patterns. Notably, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral state, meaning it is neither in an El Niño nor La Niña phase. This neutral condition reduces its influence on U.S. climate patterns. Additionally, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), an atmospheric pattern that can impact weather globally, has been weak but is showing signs of strengthening, which could affect precipitation patterns later in the month.

Implications for Agriculture and Water Management

The anticipated temperature and precipitation patterns have several implications:

• Agriculture: Above-average temperatures and variable precipitation can stress crops, particularly in regions experiencing drought or excessive rainfall. Farmers may need to adjust planting and irrigation practices accordingly.
• Water Resources: Regions expecting below-average precipitation, such as the Pacific Northwest, may face challenges in water supply, affecting both municipal needs and irrigation.
• Wildfire Risk: Drier conditions in the Northwest and Northern Plains increase the risk of wildfires. Communities in these areas should prepare for potential fire hazards.

Staying Informed and Prepared

NOAA emphasizes the importance of staying informed about local weather forecasts and being prepared for weather-related impacts. Communities are encouraged to monitor updates from the National Weather Service and local authorities to mitigate potential adverse effects of the predicted climatic conditions.