As millions of Americans prepare for holiday travel and year-end gatherings, climate scientists are drawing attention to an unusually warm weather pattern developing across large portions of the United States. Forecasts for the Christmas period indicate temperatures running well above historical norms, a phenomenon experts say is increasingly consistent with long-term climate change trends rather than short-term anomalies.
Across broad stretches of the Great Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southwest, temperatures during the late December holiday window are expected to range from 20 to as much as 35 degrees Fahrenheit above average. Such departures from seasonal norms would have been considered highly unusual in past decades, but researchers note they are becoming more frequent as the climate warms. While natural weather variability still plays a role, scientists emphasize that human-driven greenhouse gas emissions are now a significant factor influencing the likelihood and intensity of these warm spells.
Climate researchers at Climate Central, a nonprofit organization that analyzes weather and climate data, say the current holiday warmth fits squarely within patterns they have been tracking for years. Using its Climate Shift Index, which estimates how much climate change has altered the probability of specific weather events, the organization found that this level of warmth is at least two to three times more likely today than it would have been in a world without global warming. In some regions, the likelihood attributable to climate change is even higher.
“This is not just a random warm Christmas,” climate scientists say. “The background conditions have changed.” Rising global temperatures have shifted the baseline, making unusually warm winter days more common and reducing the frequency of extreme cold events in many parts of the country. While cold snaps still occur, they are increasingly punctuated by prolonged periods of above-average warmth.
The projected warmth spans diverse regions with traditionally colder winter climates. In parts of the Upper Midwest, where snow-covered holidays were once the norm, forecasts call for temperatures more typical of early fall. In the Great Plains, mild conditions could disrupt seasonal expectations for agriculture and winter recreation, while the Southwest is expected to see temperatures well above normal even by its typically milder winter standards.
These conditions are already influencing holiday plans and local economies. In some northern states, ski resorts and winter tourism businesses are facing challenges related to reduced snowpack and warmer temperatures, relying more heavily on artificial snowmaking where possible. Conversely, milder weather may ease travel disruptions, reducing the risk of snowstorms and icy roads during one of the busiest travel periods of the year.
Climate scientists caution, however, that the apparent short-term conveniences of warmer winter weather should not obscure the broader risks. Persistent winter warmth can have cascading effects on ecosystems, water supplies, and infrastructure. Reduced snow accumulation can affect spring and summer water availability, particularly in regions that depend on snowmelt to replenish rivers and reservoirs. Warmer winters can also alter plant and animal life cycles, increasing the risk of pest outbreaks and disrupting ecological balances.
Public health experts note that warmer winter temperatures can influence the spread of certain diseases, as insects and pathogens survive longer into the season. Additionally, fluctuating winter temperatures can stress infrastructure designed for colder conditions, such as roads, bridges, and energy systems. Freeze-thaw cycles, which are becoming more common in some regions, can accelerate wear and tear on public works.
The holiday warmth also reflects a broader national trend. The United States has experienced a series of record-breaking warm years, with average temperatures steadily rising over recent decades. Data from federal climate agencies show that winter is one of the fastest-warming seasons in many parts of the country, particularly in northern states. Scientists attribute this pattern to the accumulation of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels.
While individual weather events cannot be attributed solely to climate change, researchers emphasize that climate change alters the odds. Events like the current warm holiday outlook are now occurring against a warmer baseline, making them more intense and more frequent than they would have been otherwise. The Climate Shift Index is designed to communicate this shift in probability, helping the public understand how global warming influences day-to-day weather experiences.
The unusual warmth also comes amid growing public awareness of climate impacts on seasonal traditions. Snowy holidays, frozen lakes, and predictable winter conditions are increasingly uncertain in many regions. For some communities, this represents a cultural shift as well as an environmental one, reshaping long-standing expectations of what winter looks like.
Policymakers and climate advocates point to these trends as further evidence of the need for long-term strategies to reduce emissions and adapt to changing conditions. While mitigation efforts aim to limit future warming, adaptation measures are becoming more urgent as communities adjust to altered weather patterns. These include investments in resilient infrastructure, updated building codes, and water management systems designed for a more variable climate.
Scientists stress that continued monitoring and communication are essential. Tools like the Climate Shift Index are intended not only to analyze data, but also to make climate science more accessible and relevant to everyday experiences. By connecting abstract concepts like global temperature rise to tangible events such as holiday weather, researchers hope to foster greater understanding of how climate change is already affecting daily life.
As the nation heads into the final days of 2025, the record warm holiday outlook serves as a reminder that climate change is no longer a distant or future concern. It is increasingly shaping the seasons Americans experience now, from summer heat waves to winter warmth. While the immediate impacts may vary by region, scientists agree that the underlying trend is clear: human-driven climate change is redefining what is considered “normal” weather in the United States.
