What does a post-Assad Syria mean for millions of Syrian refugees?

Millions of Syrians around the world are celebrating the sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorship and the end of 13 years of civil war.

The war came to a swift and surprising end earlier this month after Syrian rebel forces swept through the country and invaded the capital Damascus in less than two weeks.

Now, displaced by years of civil war, Syrian refugees face a difficult decision: return to a free but ruined Syria or remain in their host country.

For many people, the decision to return to their home country depends on where they currently live. Millions of Syrian refugees live in countries bordering Syria (Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan), enduring precarious conditions in crowded and destitute refugee camps. There are also internally displaced persons within Syria.

More than 1 million others have been accepted into European countries, the UK, the US and Canada, and may want to wait and see what happens next. They may be eager to reconnect with family and friends, but may be reluctant to uproot family members, including children who may have no memory of living in Syria. do not have.

But some countries are not waiting for refugees to make their own decisions or for Syria to be rebuilt. Austria, home to around 100,000 Syrian migrants, has already announced plans to deport them. Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Finland, Ireland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway and the United Kingdom have suspended asylum applications from Syrians, and France is considering similar measures.

But Syria’s future is far from certain. The country’s economy is in shambles, inflation is high, and public infrastructure is destroyed. Basic amenities such as clean water, electricity, and housing are difficult to find. The rebel coalition that overthrew the Assad regime is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamic extremist group with ties to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. HTS is listed as a terrorist organization by the United States and the United Nations, but it has broken away from al-Qaeda and is seeking to establish itself as a legitimate actor in Syria.

Today, Explained host Noel King spoke with Amani Kadour about the plight of Syrian refugees. She heads the humanitarian non-governmental organization Syria Relief and Development and is an associate faculty member at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Below are excerpts of their conversation, edited for length and clarity. There’s more throughout the podcast, so listen to Today, Explained on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

You are Syrian-American. Do I have that right? Could you tell us about your relationship with Syria?

My heritage is Syrian. My parents are Syrian, but I grew up in America all my life. I grew up in the Midwest.

So where are we getting in touch, Amani?

I’m in Gaziantep, Turkey. For those unfamiliar, it is located in southeastern Turkey and was one of the epicenters of last year’s earthquake.

We want to know the scale of the movement that has arisen as a result of the Syrian civil war, which has lasted more than a decade. Some even left the country. Some moved around the country. What are we talking about in terms of numbers and where do people tend to end up?

First, let’s talk about leaks. The country has perhaps 6 million to 7 million refugees abroad, one of the largest numbers of refugees tracked in Syria over the past decade. This is one of the largest numbers of refugees in the world, and is now thought to have close ties to Afghanistan and Ukraine. But for quite some time it was Syria. Many of these refugees ended up in surrounding countries. And the rest went to Europe, the UK, the US, Canada and so many other places. However, I would say that the majority of countries that accept Syrian refugees are neighboring countries, including Turkey, where I currently live. And in terms of inflow into the country, across the various prefectures, the majority of displaced communities are concentrated in the northwest. This is currently one of the countries with the largest number of displaced people in the world.

In Japan, the displacement is approximately 6 million. And about 4 million people live in the northwest. These 4 million people came from other parts of the northwest as a result of air attacks on civilian infrastructure, hospitals, clinics, schools, markets, and Syria’s devastating inflection point, chemical weapons attacks, These are the people following the occupation of various cities. Many of these people come from Idlib and Aleppo and basically just move from place to place depending on where there are attacks on civilians. The rest come from parts of other governorates, including Damascus, Homs, and Hama. Many of these people may have fled parts of other prefectures because it is too dangerous to live there. Some were fleeing forced conscription, especially young people of military age. Really, it’s a mix of reasons. But I think especially in the northwest, that’s actually where the vast majority of displaced people live.

For the Syrians who were forced to flee Syria, what did it mean for the countries they ended up in?

It really varies. This was a microcosm of many other crises. Over the past 13 years, a truly moving solidarity has emerged among the Syrian people. I think people have been very generous in accepting Syrians from different countries. But there is also a wave of anti-refugee sentiment, with many countries looking inward at their economic situation, their workforce, and their health care systems, and whether they can actually subsidize these health services. We are considering it. their own population. Much of this will change post-COVID-19, with countries facing serious economic problems, including not only developing and vulnerable countries, but also developed countries such as the United States and many European countries. was.

So the reactions have been mixed, some very good, some not so good. What are we hearing from displaced Syrians now that Bashar al-Assad is gone? do they want to go home?

I think so, but there are some caveats. Without getting emotional about this, I think we can find hope and the resilience of Syrians around the world in the sight of people celebrating in almost every country and in the true solidarity. I think this is a moment in history and this moment for people as well. Before we discuss what happens next, let us allow Syrians to savor this moment. Let them celebrate and be happy. Feel the joy. Feel the pain. Feel the pain. Feel the loss, family separation, detention, persecution. This is a bittersweet moment for many. And I think it’s very important to let them handle all of this.

Meanwhile, many Syrians are now hoping to return home, or at least get permission to enter the country, to reunite with their parents they haven’t seen in a decade, or with the young men and women they had to meet. Leaving the country away from family due to lack of security or simply due to severe financial hardship. I’m very cautious about what it means when so many people say they want to go back. Is that time necessarily now? No. Do you have a clear schedule? I don’t know either. My message to host countries in particular is that now is not the time to take advantage of asylum policies. Now is not the time to use this critical point as some kind of weapon and start discussing returns right away. Especially when it doesn’t have the trifecta of voluntariness, safety, and dignity for people.

This is a controversial issue in some European countries. Have European countries come out since Assad was ousted and said we are now going to do things differently?

So, it was a hectic few days. I think that’s the case in Austria. I am cautious about mentioning other countries by name, but several countries were considering immigration policies even before this point. Germany is considering its immigration policy. Holland was looking. Denmark is seriously trying to understand the situation in Syria so it can review and readjust its immigration policy and decide whether it is safe to return or whether Syrians can be sent back now.

If people choose to return, what will they return to? What is Syria like now?

It’s really difficult. For many people, this is truly home. But “I’m going home.” I go back to my mom and dad or my brothers and sisters who were five years old, but they’re teenagers now. ” Many of my colleagues and team have now returned home and reunited with their families. And it’s very moving. I think many people lost hope. There was clearly a sense of disillusionment with the international system. But I’m worried about what kind of country people are going to return to, and that this country needs rebuilding. Needs development. It has been destroyed. So in certain areas, there’s not much to go back to.

This does not apply to all of Syria. Inflation hit the country hard. And this comes amid widespread instability in the region and major inflation rates in the region. In general, the economic instability within and outside Syria also increases some of the tailwinds for some Syrians who are struggling to afford basic services and basic amenities abroad, especially in neighboring countries. be. We destroyed the infrastructure. Therefore, there is little public infrastructure, schools, and employment possibilities. And across the health system, I’m a public health worker, so this has been an area of ​​my focus for many years. Hospitals and medical infrastructure that are almost completely collapsed in certain areas.

In the first half of the program, we spoke to a 29-year-old young man named Omar Alshogre. He said his hometown is the most beautiful place in the world. But he’s lived in Europe since he was 19 or 20 years old, and he’s lived in Europe all his life. So for someone like this young man, this is going to be a very difficult decision. I’m sure we’ll hear stories like this over and over again in the coming months and years.

Yes, certainly. I think many people are grappling with this problem right now. Especially many of my colleagues and friends who have children born in other countries. And then there is something called Syria, and there is an identity that we are originally from there. They may be too young to understand what that actually means. They may feel that they are Jordanian, they may feel that they are Turkish, they may feel that they are British. So we’re really thinking about the identity of kids who were born outside the country and are now tweens and teens, as well as people who left home right away at the end of college or high school. And now most of their formative years are spent abroad.

Returning at this point is a big decision, especially in the absence of these amenities and services. There are generations in this country who have not had access to education. Where can I secure my own livelihood and education? Will I be going to Syria right away tomorrow? Absolutely not. It takes time. Uprooting them again is a difficult decision, especially when some people in Jordan and Lebanon are displaced for the fourth, fifth, or sixth time. They started their lives over and over again. Therefore, some people seek stability in any form. And I think there are limits to what humans can handle.